March Madness: Day 1

It's been a long day of basketball.  Some really entertaining games, and some not so entertaining games.  Here's what stuck to me, after day 1.

Upsets:  There were two big upsets today.  VCU (not sure you can really call it a major upset), and Colorado played the role of underdogs, and came out on top of the competition today.  Two statistics that both winning teams had in common were; 1: They shot a higher percentage from the charity stripe, and 2: they shot a higher percentage from the floor than their opponent.  

Now if we look at each individual game, we'll find that...

UNLV was outrebounded by the Buffs 43-30, and was held to 9-36 three point shooting.  Colorado made up for 23 turnovers with some stellar 1st half defense, and good outside shooting.

VCU made the final four last year.  I didn't expect them to win today, but I'm certainly not shocked, either.  Wichita St. was ranked 15th in the nation in points per game, coming into this matchup.  That's quite the contrast to VCU who is a more defensive minded team.  In games where the playing style is so different, it tends to favor the team that plays at a slower pace.  Up tempo teams don't focus on half court offenses and have a tougher time with offensive flow, and such is what happened with the Shockers, today.  

Things I learned today:

UNLV beat North Carolina earlier on this year.  I do think that the Runnin' Rebels are a solid ball club, but big wins early on in the season don't always mean success in March.  

Colorado was hot coming in, having won the PAC-12 tournament.  I was in denial and thought to myself, "Sure they're hot, but who are they hot against?"  The PAC-12 had a major down-year this year, and I wrote Colorado off.  It doesn't always matter who you're hot against, it just matters that you're hot.  

The teams who I thought made a statement, are:

Kentucky and Ohio State showed that they have earned high seeds, and really put their opponent away from the get go.

Gonzaga made a case for themselves that they should have been a higher seed.  West Virginia was no match from the start.

Marquette stomped on BYU early, and kept them down.  Everytime the Cougars made a run, Marquette would buckle down and stop it.   

Indiana proved me wrong.  I picked NMSU, and the Hoosiers made me pay.  They were the much better team in every facet of the game.  

Teams I was disappointed with, who will advance:

Syracuse.  Wow.  The refs handed them that victory.  They were very lucky to be the benefactors of a couple controversial calls down the stretch.  I don't see them making it past the "Sweet 16".

Baylor has a great record, but they don't have a lot of quality wins.  They struggled to put away a seldom heard of team in South Dakota State.  

What to look for tomorrow:

1 more 10 seed will advance tomorrow.  I've got my money on Virginia beating Florida.

North Carolina State and San Diego State will be a very entertaining game, and will have a good finish.

It was a fun day of basketball today, and I certainly expect more of the same for the rest of the weekend!  

My bracket record: 13-3

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March Madness

The best sporting month of the year is once again upon us.  March.  The month that provides more crazy endings  than an episode of "Lost".  The month that gives fans of 68 division 1 basketball schools around the country hope, and the month that gives those who cheer for teams not belonging in the NCAA tournament entertainment.  In the coming paragraphs will be some "dos" and "don'ts" for filling out your bracket, as well as my upset alerts.

First piece of advice:  in the 72 year history of what has been dubbed "March Madness", the four number 1 seeds have only made the "Final Four" once.  Once!  It was done in 2008 when Kansas, UCLA, North Carolina, and Memphis held to their seedings, and lasted the previous rounds.  They're the favorites, but as tempting as it is to take the Goliaths all the way to the end, don't!  15 seeds aren't too successful either, having notched just 4 wins against their opponents.

Second: Whatever you do, do not ever, ever, take a 16 seed to beat a one.  It's a feat that's never been accomplished in the lifespan of major men's college hoops.  Everybody loves an upset, and we all think it's funny when the office clown picks UC Santa Cruz to go to the final against South Dakota State, but don't make a mistake.  Take the 1 seed.

Third:  A 12 seed almost always will make the "Sweet Sixteen" very frequently.  The twelves are the most common seed lower than 9 to make an appearance in the fourth round of the tournament.  Don't plan on having them go any further, though.  My money is on USF, this year.

Fourth:  The 4 seeds have only advanced to the round of sixteen 14 times since 2001.  Not a very good average.  Upset alert is definitely on Indiana.  NMSU is very athletic, and have won 11 of their last 12, including their conference tournament.  Indiana hasn't been consistent this year, either.

Fifth: BYU won't make it past the 3rd round and will be lucky to get out of the 2nd round.  Sorry Cougar fans.

UPSET ALERTS:

• As previously mentioned, keep an eye out for New Mexico State.  I have them as my biggest upset in this years tournament.  I also have them losing in the next game to the best Mid-Major team in the nation, Wichita State.
• USF over Temple.  USF likes to slow the game down.  Uptempo teams can have a really hard time adjusting to a slower pace of ball.  I.E. BYU's second half defensive adjustments against Iona.
• Purdue over Saint Mary's.  The Gaels haven't had a ton of major competition this year, and lost some of their biggest games against Gonzaga, and Murray State.  Purdue is a good ball club who can get hot from outside.  I don't think Saint Mary's has the talent to stop them.
• Alabama over Creighton.  Not much of an upset, but I think Creighton is slightly overrated (as I do 'Bama) but I think the Tide are a more athletic team with more experience in a big game atmosphere.

FINAL FOUR PREDICTIONS:

I haven't come out publicly and officially announced who I have in my Final Four yet, so here goes.  I have Florida State, Missouri, Kentucky and Kansas.  Kentucky and Kansas advancing, and the Wildcats winning. Florida State is hot at the right time.  They beat Duke and North Carolina twice this season, once in a span of 24 hours.  The 'Noles are going to make a big, big run.  Missouri, I think, has a fairly easy road to the Final Four.  I have them beating Louisville in the Elite 8.  Kansas I also feel has an easy run until North Carolina in the Elite 8.  The Tar Heels lack depth at Center, and are going to pay the price sooner or later.  Kentucky is the best team in the nation, with the best Freshman in the nation in Anthony Davis.  I don't see the winningest program in the sports' history letting up now.  Kentucky is cutting down the nets, and John Calipari will finally have a well deserved national title.