March Madness: Day 1

It's been a long day of basketball.  Some really entertaining games, and some not so entertaining games.  Here's what stuck to me, after day 1.

Upsets:  There were two big upsets today.  VCU (not sure you can really call it a major upset), and Colorado played the role of underdogs, and came out on top of the competition today.  Two statistics that both winning teams had in common were; 1: They shot a higher percentage from the charity stripe, and 2: they shot a higher percentage from the floor than their opponent.  

Now if we look at each individual game, we'll find that...

UNLV was outrebounded by the Buffs 43-30, and was held to 9-36 three point shooting.  Colorado made up for 23 turnovers with some stellar 1st half defense, and good outside shooting.

VCU made the final four last year.  I didn't expect them to win today, but I'm certainly not shocked, either.  Wichita St. was ranked 15th in the nation in points per game, coming into this matchup.  That's quite the contrast to VCU who is a more defensive minded team.  In games where the playing style is so different, it tends to favor the team that plays at a slower pace.  Up tempo teams don't focus on half court offenses and have a tougher time with offensive flow, and such is what happened with the Shockers, today.  

Things I learned today:

UNLV beat North Carolina earlier on this year.  I do think that the Runnin' Rebels are a solid ball club, but big wins early on in the season don't always mean success in March.  

Colorado was hot coming in, having won the PAC-12 tournament.  I was in denial and thought to myself, "Sure they're hot, but who are they hot against?"  The PAC-12 had a major down-year this year, and I wrote Colorado off.  It doesn't always matter who you're hot against, it just matters that you're hot.  

The teams who I thought made a statement, are:

Kentucky and Ohio State showed that they have earned high seeds, and really put their opponent away from the get go.

Gonzaga made a case for themselves that they should have been a higher seed.  West Virginia was no match from the start.

Marquette stomped on BYU early, and kept them down.  Everytime the Cougars made a run, Marquette would buckle down and stop it.   

Indiana proved me wrong.  I picked NMSU, and the Hoosiers made me pay.  They were the much better team in every facet of the game.  

Teams I was disappointed with, who will advance:

Syracuse.  Wow.  The refs handed them that victory.  They were very lucky to be the benefactors of a couple controversial calls down the stretch.  I don't see them making it past the "Sweet 16".

Baylor has a great record, but they don't have a lot of quality wins.  They struggled to put away a seldom heard of team in South Dakota State.  

What to look for tomorrow:

1 more 10 seed will advance tomorrow.  I've got my money on Virginia beating Florida.

North Carolina State and San Diego State will be a very entertaining game, and will have a good finish.

It was a fun day of basketball today, and I certainly expect more of the same for the rest of the weekend!  

My bracket record: 13-3

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March Madness

The best sporting month of the year is once again upon us.  March.  The month that provides more crazy endings  than an episode of "Lost".  The month that gives fans of 68 division 1 basketball schools around the country hope, and the month that gives those who cheer for teams not belonging in the NCAA tournament entertainment.  In the coming paragraphs will be some "dos" and "don'ts" for filling out your bracket, as well as my upset alerts.

First piece of advice:  in the 72 year history of what has been dubbed "March Madness", the four number 1 seeds have only made the "Final Four" once.  Once!  It was done in 2008 when Kansas, UCLA, North Carolina, and Memphis held to their seedings, and lasted the previous rounds.  They're the favorites, but as tempting as it is to take the Goliaths all the way to the end, don't!  15 seeds aren't too successful either, having notched just 4 wins against their opponents.

Second: Whatever you do, do not ever, ever, take a 16 seed to beat a one.  It's a feat that's never been accomplished in the lifespan of major men's college hoops.  Everybody loves an upset, and we all think it's funny when the office clown picks UC Santa Cruz to go to the final against South Dakota State, but don't make a mistake.  Take the 1 seed.

Third:  A 12 seed almost always will make the "Sweet Sixteen" very frequently.  The twelves are the most common seed lower than 9 to make an appearance in the fourth round of the tournament.  Don't plan on having them go any further, though.  My money is on USF, this year.

Fourth:  The 4 seeds have only advanced to the round of sixteen 14 times since 2001.  Not a very good average.  Upset alert is definitely on Indiana.  NMSU is very athletic, and have won 11 of their last 12, including their conference tournament.  Indiana hasn't been consistent this year, either.

Fifth: BYU won't make it past the 3rd round and will be lucky to get out of the 2nd round.  Sorry Cougar fans.

UPSET ALERTS:

• As previously mentioned, keep an eye out for New Mexico State.  I have them as my biggest upset in this years tournament.  I also have them losing in the next game to the best Mid-Major team in the nation, Wichita State.
• USF over Temple.  USF likes to slow the game down.  Uptempo teams can have a really hard time adjusting to a slower pace of ball.  I.E. BYU's second half defensive adjustments against Iona.
• Purdue over Saint Mary's.  The Gaels haven't had a ton of major competition this year, and lost some of their biggest games against Gonzaga, and Murray State.  Purdue is a good ball club who can get hot from outside.  I don't think Saint Mary's has the talent to stop them.
• Alabama over Creighton.  Not much of an upset, but I think Creighton is slightly overrated (as I do 'Bama) but I think the Tide are a more athletic team with more experience in a big game atmosphere.

FINAL FOUR PREDICTIONS:

I haven't come out publicly and officially announced who I have in my Final Four yet, so here goes.  I have Florida State, Missouri, Kentucky and Kansas.  Kentucky and Kansas advancing, and the Wildcats winning. Florida State is hot at the right time.  They beat Duke and North Carolina twice this season, once in a span of 24 hours.  The 'Noles are going to make a big, big run.  Missouri, I think, has a fairly easy road to the Final Four.  I have them beating Louisville in the Elite 8.  Kansas I also feel has an easy run until North Carolina in the Elite 8.  The Tar Heels lack depth at Center, and are going to pay the price sooner or later.  Kentucky is the best team in the nation, with the best Freshman in the nation in Anthony Davis.  I don't see the winningest program in the sports' history letting up now.  Kentucky is cutting down the nets, and John Calipari will finally have a well deserved national title.

What does the win against Miami mean for the Jazz?

On Friday night the Jazz beat the hottest team in the NBA.  Some are calling it a "season changing win".  While it is too early to declare it a "season changer", there are still a lot of things we can learn from the upset victory last night.

The Jazz don't have a go-to guy.  They are a team that's going to beat you as a team, and not with one, two, or even three options.  They can, and really have to win as a team.  A classic example of this was the last offensive play for the Jazz.  The original offensive set was an isolation to Al Jefferson who had been playing very well against his match up all night, and was the Jazz' leading scorer on the night.  Al noticed that the play wasn't there, and passed it up top to Devin Harris who made the best play of his entire tenure with the Jazz, pump faking "The King", than throwing up a floater over D-Wade, drawing the foul and making the free-throw.  This was the Jazz' most balanced offensive effort of the season.  Six players in double figures, five players with three or more offensive rebounds, and three players with 5+ assists.  Another interesting note, every Jazz starter was a minus in the +/- rating, while everyone who came off the bench was a plus.

The Jazz can compete with the big teams.  It's no secret that this years Jazz play to the level of their competition, but the Jazz have hung tight with, and beat big name teams this year and usually play better against them when the teams big star is in the game.  They have suffered way too many disappointing losses this year, but the young Jazz can play with and occasionally beat the big boys.

We were shown some of the killer mentality that the Jazz have been lacking.  When one of the best players in the game had probably the most dominating 4th quarter I've ever seen at the ESA, the Jazz hung tough and won.  How they did it is irrelevant.  They won.  Even though LeBron had a huge 4th quarter, Dwyane Wade was held in check in the final minutes going 2-6 in the closing quarter, and missing a clutch free-throw with 13 seconds left.

Is this win a "season changing" win?  The simple answer is, "not yet".  In order for it to be a season changing win, the Jazz go on a stretch of winning at least ten of their next thirteen or fourteen games.  In order for it to be a season defining game, the Jazz would need to make the playoffs.  I believe that people are overlooking the impact the Houston game had on the Jazz.  After the DeMarcus Cousins and the Kings royally beat the Jazz in the newly dubbed "Powerbalance Pavilion" (I'm partial to "Arco Arena"), Utah bounced back the next night and throttled one of the teams biggest rivals in Houston.  The Rockets at the time were 4th place in the Western Conference.  That win gave the Jazz some confidence and swag heading into the game against LeBron and the Heat.

The upcoming road trip will really show us the effect that this memorable victory over Miami will have on the young Jazz.  Tonight Utah will face Roddy "Jazz Killer" Beaubois and the Mavs whom the Jazz have struggled to defend all year.  After which the team travels to Cleveland and Charlotte, which normally Utah would chock up as a victory.  For whatever reason though, the Jazz have lacked motivation and heart against teams they should beat.  Following which the Jazz travel to the City of Brotherly Love to face the Atlantic Division leading 76ers, and finish up the road trip in Chicago against the leaders of the Eastern Conference.  If there was ever a time to see just how much this win meant to the Jazz, it's now.

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LeBron passed on the last play. So what?

Miami 98 Utah 99.

Certainly an entertaining game, and one of the Jazz' best performances of the season, regardless of blowing a lead late in the game.

The Jazz are down 1 with 13 seconds left, and quickly go to a play that has been a favorite as of late, going to the low post in an iso play for Al Jefferson.  Nothing was there, and he dished it back to Devin Harris at the top of the key.  Devin, with "The King" guarding him, pump faked, got LeBron in the air and took it to the hole.  He floats up a prayer with his right hand, draws contact from D-Wade and makes the shot.  Harris goes to the line, makes the free throw, Jazz up one with 4.5 seconds left.

On the ensuing play, LeBron lined up underneath the hoop guarded by Josh Howard.  To this point in the 4th quarter, the Headband Hoodlum had been playing like a mad man.  8-9 from the field in the 4th quarter including a three-pointer with 1:07 left, and a crazy 23 footer with a guy in his face, to take the lead with 26 seconds left.  The game was his.  He curled up outside the three point line on the wing, catches a screen from Udonis Haslem and is double teamed by Paul Millsap and Josh Howard, and passed to the open man (Haslem), who missed an open 18 footer, Jazz rebound, Jazz win.

I really don't think that LeBron dishing the ball was that big of a deal.  Haslem is having an off-season, and isn't shooting well, but historically is a decent mid-range shooter.  He was the open man, and had a good look.  LeBron had two guys right up in his face and passed it to the open man, and LeBron gets the blame for this loss.  Not to mention if Haslem sinks the open "J", LBJ would have looked like a genius.  Does the double teamed superstar keep the ball and take an off-balance shot, or pass to the open role-player who is traditionally a good mid-range shooter?

What if D-Wade hadn't disappeared in the 4th quarter.  He was 2-6 shooting, and missed a free-throw that would have given the Heat a three point lead with 13 seconds left.  What if Wade made the free-throw?  LeBron was the only reason the Heat were even in the game in the 4th quarter.  Dwyane Wade should be the one taking the Heat for this loss, if anybody.

This game wasn't a division, or conference game.  Miami still has a 5 1/2 game lead over division rival Orlando, and the Jazz are still looking like a long-shot for a playoff spot out West.  This game has little significance to either team, right now.  If this game were later in the season, and the playoff races were a lot closer than they actually are, this game, and LeBron's pass would have mattered a lot more.  LeBron disappeared in the final minutes of playoff games last year.  He's done much better in the clutch this year, and he certainly stepped it up in the 4th quarter tonight.  He shouldn't be criticized for passing to an open player, especially after all he had done.  If/when he does that in a game that matters this year, than we can get on his back.  As for now, he's still one of the most dominant players in the game.

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My thoughts on the 2011-2012 BCS National Championship game

There are so many different ways to look at tonight's B.C.S. national championship that it almost blows my mind.  So many different questions one may ask such as:  Is L.S.U. the best collegiate football team ever?  Does Alabama deserve to be there?  If 'Bama wins, does Oklahoma State deserve part of the championship as well?  Will there be a touchdown?  Who do I cheer for?  Who's going to win?

Addressing those questions in order, this has been one heckuva year for L.S.U.  Certainly the best year in recent memory, and quite possibly the best of all time.  If L.S.U. wins tonight, they would have beaten nine top 25 teams in 14 games.  Four of those games would have been against top 3 teams.  They have already beaten 6 bowl game winners, including the winners of the Rose, Sugar, and Cotton Bowls (which some say are the 3 of the 4 best bowl games out there).  I honestly don't see any reason for them to slow down now.  They have a killer defense and a coach who is willing to take big risks.  If they win tonight they will be, in my humble opinion, the best college football team ever.

Do the Crimson Tide really deserve to even be playing against L.S.U. for the title a mulligan of the proclaimed "Game of the Century"?  Nick Saban has been unofficially quoted as saying, "Anyone who doesn't win their conference has no business playing in the National Championship game."  That quote may or may not be real, even though it's not a stretch of the imagination to picture the weasel of a coach saying something along those lines.  'Bama already lost to the Tigers on their home field, and couldn't manage to score a touchdown on the maniac L.S.U. defense.  They didn't win their conference, or their division.  Heck they didn't even finish second in their conference.  Now you tell me if that sounds like a team that deserves a rematch.

Nick Saban wishes he was as cool as Vader.  I just thought this picture was funny.

Let's assume 1 loss Alabama does in fact pull out the upset.  That would leave us with no undefeated teams, and a leave Alabama with a lot of company in the loss department.  This raises the very question that the whole B.C.S. is supposed to eliminate, "Should we have split champions?"  Undoubtedly the best 1 loss team that didn't play in the National Championship is Oklahoma State.  With a resume of five victories against teams in the top 25, and one loss (which came the day after a tragic accident in the school's athletic program, and happened on the road in 2OT), and 1 conference championship under it's belt, it seems pretty difficult to deny the Cowboys their due.  'Bama has less wins against top 25 teams, a loss on their home field, no conference or division title to their name.  I'm still waiting to hear a decent argument as to why Ok. St. doesn't deserve a split title.

Last time these two teams met it was a 9-6 overtime shootout in Tuscaloosa.  Are we in for a more entertaining/higher scoring affair tonight?  Yes.  Both teams have had a while to practice and prepare for each other, and a lot of time to practice trick plays which bowl games tend to highlight.  That's not mentioning "The Mad Hatter" and his aggressive play calling either.  Both teams will want to jump out to an early lead, so look for some big shots early on.  Don't count out a defensive score either.

If you woke up today and couldn't figure out a team to cheer for (as so many find it difficult to do with the S.E.C. and with this game in particular) than here are a few things to take into account.  Nick Saban is public enemy #1 in the great state of Louisiana.  He was the head coach of the Tigers and led them to the 2003 B.C.S. title, and quickly bolted for a higher paying/more prestigious job opportunity in the N.F.L. with the Miami Dolphins.  That doesn't sit right with L.S.U. fans.  Neither does the fact that he left the Dolphins after a losing season, to take over at a division rival, and one of the most hated programs in the S.E.C.  He reportedly lied to the Dolphins saying he wasn't interested in coaching Alabama or any other team.  (When he left the Dolphins he didn't personally address his players and fellow coaches.  He contacted them over a conference call.)  If you're a B.C.S. hater, you might find yourself cheering for Alabama (or against L.S.U., however you may look at it).  Having another split national title will only cause a strong uprising and argument against the so called "perfect system".  Oklahoma State fans will be donning their finest crimson tonight.

The game will be played in New Orleans, Louisiana (a city that is quickly becoming a football hotspot), which is a convenient 80 mile drive for Tiger fans.  L.S.U. already has some swag heading into the game with the knowledge that it beat Alabama on it's home turf.  'Bama is playing with a bit of a chip on it's shoulder trying to prove that it belongs and that it deserves the crystal football.  All things considered, I believe that L.S.U. will win tonight.  It won't be a shootout that many want, but sparingly expect, but the result will be a positive one for Tiger fans everywhere.  L.S.U. 24 Alabama 14

Geaux Tigers

Why the 2008 Utes are better than any team Boise State has ever had

For those of you who follow this blog, or know me personally, you know that I'm not a big Boise State fan.  In fact I really don't like them at all.  It bugs me how much attention they get year after year for playing a terrible schedule.  I have never said that Boise State is bad.  They are a good team.  They just don't deserve the praise that they get.  Many people want BSU to have a chance at the national championship.  Let's take a look at what last years title winning team had to play to get the the 'ship shall we?

This guy doesn't like Boise State too much either.

Last year Auburn took home the trophy after a controversial season.  Did I like them?  No.  Do I think they cheated?  Yes.  However Boise State has had allegations against their recruiting too.  Auburn's first test of the year was Mississippi State.  This year the Bulldogs have fallen on some rough times, but last years team wen 9-4, beat Michigan in the bowl game, and finished the year in the top 25.  Next they played another team that made it to a bowl game in Clemson.  Clemson didn't have the best season, but at least made it to a bowl game.  After they had to play (then) #12 South Carolina, who ended up being the SEC East champion of last year.  That's 3 weeks in a row with high quality games.  Boise State's lucky if they get 2 quality games in a whole regular season.  Auburn had a close encounter with another bowl bound Kentucky a couple weeks later followed by another game with the #12 ranked Razorbacks.  The week after they played #6 LSU.  That's 4 top 25 teams played in 8 games.  That's not even mentioning the classic they had with Alabama in the Iron Bowl, then manhandling South Carolina in the SEC championship game, followed by the National Championship against Oregon.  Eight of the 14 games Auburn played were against top 25 teams, and 9 of 13 games in the prior to the national championship against teams that were going to a bowl game.

Last year Boise State played 4 teams who were ranked in the top 25.  Virginia Tech (who lost the next week to FCS' James Madison), Oregon State (who didn't even play in a bowl game last year), Nevada (who the Broncos choked against), and Utah (who was overrated all year and playing with a backup QB).  It's not a question of whether or not Boise State is good enough.  But whether or not they deserve it.  Last year I don't think anyone can argue that the most definitely didn't.  This year, Boise has one decent win against Georgia.  Georgia lost the next week as well against an underachieving S. Carolina team, and is currently ranked number 22 in the latest BCS standings.  Other than that, they don't play another ranked team all year, and seldom play a team with a winning record.  They don't deserve to even be in the conversation with the other 3 teams in the top 4.  If you want to be the best, you have to beat the best, and in college football, the best will beat the best on a constant basis.

Now let's take a look at other "great" teams Boise State has produced.  In 2009 Boise State won the Fiesta Bowl over TCU.  Who did they play before that?  Good question.  We would have to go all the way back to the first game of the year.  They played Oregon who went on to be the Pac-10 champions and would lose in the Rose Bowl to Ohio State.  So they did have 1 quality win in the regular season.  Other than that the most points they gave up were 35 against the La. Tech Bulldogs.  While the big teams are beating down top 25 competition, big bad Boise goes and picks on San Jose State and Bowling Green.  Even if they do have the same talent, they should have to earn it just like everyone else does.  In 2009 Boise didn't earn it.  (Alabama who was the national champion that year, played, and won 4 games against teams in the top 9.)

"Well what about 2006?  We beat Oklahoma that year!" argues the diehard Bronco fan.  But the question is, what did they do to earn the right to even be on the same field as Oklahoma?  I know that wins over Sacramento State, Wyoming, and on the road at bitter, bitter rival Idaho are impressive...but that doesn't cut it for me, or for anyone with a brain.  You can't do nothing the entire regular season, and expect to have the same benefits as a team who plays a death march of a schedule to get there.  This has lead me to my point.

She woulda said, "no" if they had lost.

Any team that doesn't play in an AQ conference, with the BCS system in tact is going to have a tough time getting where they want to go because of a weak schedule.  That wasn't the case with the 2008 Utah Utes.  Boise State usually opens the season with a game against a big team at a neutral site.  The 2008 Utes opened the season with a true road game against the winningest program in college football history, and won.  A few weeks later, a 5-0 Utah team plays against an Oregon State team that had just knocked off the number 1 team in the nation, USC.  Utah beat them too.  Oregon State finished the season 9-4 and in the top 25.  After Oregon State, Utah played TCU (who was ranked 11 or 12 depending on the poll), and beat them too.  Finally the Utes, to solidify another BCS bid, played the number 14 ranked BYU Cougars, and won again.  4 quality wins in the regular season.  That's more quality wins in 1 regular season, than Boise State has had in this regular season, '09, and '06 combined.  After a great regular season, Utah went on to play a team that thought they should be playing in the national championship in Alabama, and Utah destroyed them.  They didn't have a close game like Boise State's games against Oklahoma and TCU.

This is what people do when they win 31-17

Utah proved they had a deserved to be there and they proved it in the regular season.  Boise State has never done that and they won't do it again this year but they'll still make it to a BCS game.  The 2008 Utes proved they belonged, when Boise still hasn't had more than 1 quality wins in a regular season in a looooooooong time.  Down with Boise and all other teams who don't deserve what they get.

At least A-Town understands me.

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How one team can single-handedly ruin the NBA

Some of you may have heard that the NBA finals are being played between the Dallas Mavericks and the dreaded Miami Heat.  This series has been really interesting for me.  I grew up a fan of the small market Utah Jazz, and traditionally have never cared about the Heat ('til this year), and have despised Dallas for a loooooooooong time.  I want the Mavericks to win, but I have the Heat in 6.

This series has put me in deep thought for some time now.  How could I, Austin Christensen, a life-long Jazz fan, who has hated the Mavericks for as long as I have (started with the 1st round playoffs when the Jazz went up 2-0 and Dallas won 3 straight to win the series) cheer so fervently for them to win the Holy Grail of NBA basketball?  It's because if the Miami Heat win the NBA championship it will completely, utterly, and absolutely destroy the NBA as we know it.  

The NBA has some teams from small markets that have contributed in big ways to the leagues history, and tradition.  The San Antonio Spurs, Portland Trailblazers, Utah Jazz, Oklahoma City Thunder/Seattle Supersonics, and Sacramento Kings have all contributed in great ways and have had great playoff runs in the Western Conference.  All are smaller markets.  In the East you have teams like the Pacers, even the Milwaukee Bucks when they had Lou Alcindor,and Cleveland who are all smaller markets, and have made playoff runs of their own.  The league has a history of smaller markets who make runs in the playoffs and even steal TV ratings (i.e. Memphis this year, and Golden State of 2006).  If the Heat win the Finals this year, it will completely ruin these smaller markets, and in turn, ruin more than half the league.

NBA players normally don't want to go to smaller markets, and the players that are in the small markets, all want to get out (i.e. Rony Seikally and Derek Harper being traded to Utah, and Deron Williams staying in Utah).  LeBron James left his smaller market, home-town team to join Chris Bosh (also leaving a smaller basketball market) and DeWayne Wade in Miami.  The three players contacted each other during the summer, and planned to form a dream team in a desirable market, and are now on the verge of winning an NBA championship.  Amare Stoudamire and Carmelo Anthony soon followed suit, joining up in New York, another desirable market to live and play in.  

If the Heat win, all the NBA's superstars are going to be calling each other and trying to find a good location to play ball, and make their own dream teams, virtually eliminating teams like Indiana, Utah, Milwaukee, Minnesota etc. from getting any superstar players of their own.  All the Superstars are going to want to take pay-cuts, and go to bigger markets to play for rings.  Dallas didn't have to do that, and that is why ALL of America, but especially small market America, should be cheering for Dallas to win the NBA Finals.  Dallas is the team that can stick it to the man, and prove that the superstars of the NBA can't do whatever they want to do.  

Miami winning the Finals would mean an end of balance (if there was any to begin with) talent, and depth to the NBA, making it even more predictable, boring, and one-sided than ever.  America, and the NBA need the Mavericks to win this series.  Let's go Mavs!  

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