March Madness: Day 1

It's been a long day of basketball.  Some really entertaining games, and some not so entertaining games.  Here's what stuck to me, after day 1.

Upsets:  There were two big upsets today.  VCU (not sure you can really call it a major upset), and Colorado played the role of underdogs, and came out on top of the competition today.  Two statistics that both winning teams had in common were; 1: They shot a higher percentage from the charity stripe, and 2: they shot a higher percentage from the floor than their opponent.  

Now if we look at each individual game, we'll find that...

UNLV was outrebounded by the Buffs 43-30, and was held to 9-36 three point shooting.  Colorado made up for 23 turnovers with some stellar 1st half defense, and good outside shooting.

VCU made the final four last year.  I didn't expect them to win today, but I'm certainly not shocked, either.  Wichita St. was ranked 15th in the nation in points per game, coming into this matchup.  That's quite the contrast to VCU who is a more defensive minded team.  In games where the playing style is so different, it tends to favor the team that plays at a slower pace.  Up tempo teams don't focus on half court offenses and have a tougher time with offensive flow, and such is what happened with the Shockers, today.  

Things I learned today:

UNLV beat North Carolina earlier on this year.  I do think that the Runnin' Rebels are a solid ball club, but big wins early on in the season don't always mean success in March.  

Colorado was hot coming in, having won the PAC-12 tournament.  I was in denial and thought to myself, "Sure they're hot, but who are they hot against?"  The PAC-12 had a major down-year this year, and I wrote Colorado off.  It doesn't always matter who you're hot against, it just matters that you're hot.  

The teams who I thought made a statement, are:

Kentucky and Ohio State showed that they have earned high seeds, and really put their opponent away from the get go.

Gonzaga made a case for themselves that they should have been a higher seed.  West Virginia was no match from the start.

Marquette stomped on BYU early, and kept them down.  Everytime the Cougars made a run, Marquette would buckle down and stop it.   

Indiana proved me wrong.  I picked NMSU, and the Hoosiers made me pay.  They were the much better team in every facet of the game.  

Teams I was disappointed with, who will advance:

Syracuse.  Wow.  The refs handed them that victory.  They were very lucky to be the benefactors of a couple controversial calls down the stretch.  I don't see them making it past the "Sweet 16".

Baylor has a great record, but they don't have a lot of quality wins.  They struggled to put away a seldom heard of team in South Dakota State.  

What to look for tomorrow:

1 more 10 seed will advance tomorrow.  I've got my money on Virginia beating Florida.

North Carolina State and San Diego State will be a very entertaining game, and will have a good finish.

It was a fun day of basketball today, and I certainly expect more of the same for the rest of the weekend!  

My bracket record: 13-3

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March Madness

The best sporting month of the year is once again upon us.  March.  The month that provides more crazy endings  than an episode of "Lost".  The month that gives fans of 68 division 1 basketball schools around the country hope, and the month that gives those who cheer for teams not belonging in the NCAA tournament entertainment.  In the coming paragraphs will be some "dos" and "don'ts" for filling out your bracket, as well as my upset alerts.

First piece of advice:  in the 72 year history of what has been dubbed "March Madness", the four number 1 seeds have only made the "Final Four" once.  Once!  It was done in 2008 when Kansas, UCLA, North Carolina, and Memphis held to their seedings, and lasted the previous rounds.  They're the favorites, but as tempting as it is to take the Goliaths all the way to the end, don't!  15 seeds aren't too successful either, having notched just 4 wins against their opponents.

Second: Whatever you do, do not ever, ever, take a 16 seed to beat a one.  It's a feat that's never been accomplished in the lifespan of major men's college hoops.  Everybody loves an upset, and we all think it's funny when the office clown picks UC Santa Cruz to go to the final against South Dakota State, but don't make a mistake.  Take the 1 seed.

Third:  A 12 seed almost always will make the "Sweet Sixteen" very frequently.  The twelves are the most common seed lower than 9 to make an appearance in the fourth round of the tournament.  Don't plan on having them go any further, though.  My money is on USF, this year.

Fourth:  The 4 seeds have only advanced to the round of sixteen 14 times since 2001.  Not a very good average.  Upset alert is definitely on Indiana.  NMSU is very athletic, and have won 11 of their last 12, including their conference tournament.  Indiana hasn't been consistent this year, either.

Fifth: BYU won't make it past the 3rd round and will be lucky to get out of the 2nd round.  Sorry Cougar fans.

UPSET ALERTS:

• As previously mentioned, keep an eye out for New Mexico State.  I have them as my biggest upset in this years tournament.  I also have them losing in the next game to the best Mid-Major team in the nation, Wichita State.
• USF over Temple.  USF likes to slow the game down.  Uptempo teams can have a really hard time adjusting to a slower pace of ball.  I.E. BYU's second half defensive adjustments against Iona.
• Purdue over Saint Mary's.  The Gaels haven't had a ton of major competition this year, and lost some of their biggest games against Gonzaga, and Murray State.  Purdue is a good ball club who can get hot from outside.  I don't think Saint Mary's has the talent to stop them.
• Alabama over Creighton.  Not much of an upset, but I think Creighton is slightly overrated (as I do 'Bama) but I think the Tide are a more athletic team with more experience in a big game atmosphere.

FINAL FOUR PREDICTIONS:

I haven't come out publicly and officially announced who I have in my Final Four yet, so here goes.  I have Florida State, Missouri, Kentucky and Kansas.  Kentucky and Kansas advancing, and the Wildcats winning. Florida State is hot at the right time.  They beat Duke and North Carolina twice this season, once in a span of 24 hours.  The 'Noles are going to make a big, big run.  Missouri, I think, has a fairly easy road to the Final Four.  I have them beating Louisville in the Elite 8.  Kansas I also feel has an easy run until North Carolina in the Elite 8.  The Tar Heels lack depth at Center, and are going to pay the price sooner or later.  Kentucky is the best team in the nation, with the best Freshman in the nation in Anthony Davis.  I don't see the winningest program in the sports' history letting up now.  Kentucky is cutting down the nets, and John Calipari will finally have a well deserved national title.

What does the win against Miami mean for the Jazz?

On Friday night the Jazz beat the hottest team in the NBA.  Some are calling it a "season changing win".  While it is too early to declare it a "season changer", there are still a lot of things we can learn from the upset victory last night.

The Jazz don't have a go-to guy.  They are a team that's going to beat you as a team, and not with one, two, or even three options.  They can, and really have to win as a team.  A classic example of this was the last offensive play for the Jazz.  The original offensive set was an isolation to Al Jefferson who had been playing very well against his match up all night, and was the Jazz' leading scorer on the night.  Al noticed that the play wasn't there, and passed it up top to Devin Harris who made the best play of his entire tenure with the Jazz, pump faking "The King", than throwing up a floater over D-Wade, drawing the foul and making the free-throw.  This was the Jazz' most balanced offensive effort of the season.  Six players in double figures, five players with three or more offensive rebounds, and three players with 5+ assists.  Another interesting note, every Jazz starter was a minus in the +/- rating, while everyone who came off the bench was a plus.

The Jazz can compete with the big teams.  It's no secret that this years Jazz play to the level of their competition, but the Jazz have hung tight with, and beat big name teams this year and usually play better against them when the teams big star is in the game.  They have suffered way too many disappointing losses this year, but the young Jazz can play with and occasionally beat the big boys.

We were shown some of the killer mentality that the Jazz have been lacking.  When one of the best players in the game had probably the most dominating 4th quarter I've ever seen at the ESA, the Jazz hung tough and won.  How they did it is irrelevant.  They won.  Even though LeBron had a huge 4th quarter, Dwyane Wade was held in check in the final minutes going 2-6 in the closing quarter, and missing a clutch free-throw with 13 seconds left.

Is this win a "season changing" win?  The simple answer is, "not yet".  In order for it to be a season changing win, the Jazz go on a stretch of winning at least ten of their next thirteen or fourteen games.  In order for it to be a season defining game, the Jazz would need to make the playoffs.  I believe that people are overlooking the impact the Houston game had on the Jazz.  After the DeMarcus Cousins and the Kings royally beat the Jazz in the newly dubbed "Powerbalance Pavilion" (I'm partial to "Arco Arena"), Utah bounced back the next night and throttled one of the teams biggest rivals in Houston.  The Rockets at the time were 4th place in the Western Conference.  That win gave the Jazz some confidence and swag heading into the game against LeBron and the Heat.

The upcoming road trip will really show us the effect that this memorable victory over Miami will have on the young Jazz.  Tonight Utah will face Roddy "Jazz Killer" Beaubois and the Mavs whom the Jazz have struggled to defend all year.  After which the team travels to Cleveland and Charlotte, which normally Utah would chock up as a victory.  For whatever reason though, the Jazz have lacked motivation and heart against teams they should beat.  Following which the Jazz travel to the City of Brotherly Love to face the Atlantic Division leading 76ers, and finish up the road trip in Chicago against the leaders of the Eastern Conference.  If there was ever a time to see just how much this win meant to the Jazz, it's now.

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LeBron passed on the last play. So what?

Miami 98 Utah 99.

Certainly an entertaining game, and one of the Jazz' best performances of the season, regardless of blowing a lead late in the game.

The Jazz are down 1 with 13 seconds left, and quickly go to a play that has been a favorite as of late, going to the low post in an iso play for Al Jefferson.  Nothing was there, and he dished it back to Devin Harris at the top of the key.  Devin, with "The King" guarding him, pump faked, got LeBron in the air and took it to the hole.  He floats up a prayer with his right hand, draws contact from D-Wade and makes the shot.  Harris goes to the line, makes the free throw, Jazz up one with 4.5 seconds left.

On the ensuing play, LeBron lined up underneath the hoop guarded by Josh Howard.  To this point in the 4th quarter, the Headband Hoodlum had been playing like a mad man.  8-9 from the field in the 4th quarter including a three-pointer with 1:07 left, and a crazy 23 footer with a guy in his face, to take the lead with 26 seconds left.  The game was his.  He curled up outside the three point line on the wing, catches a screen from Udonis Haslem and is double teamed by Paul Millsap and Josh Howard, and passed to the open man (Haslem), who missed an open 18 footer, Jazz rebound, Jazz win.

I really don't think that LeBron dishing the ball was that big of a deal.  Haslem is having an off-season, and isn't shooting well, but historically is a decent mid-range shooter.  He was the open man, and had a good look.  LeBron had two guys right up in his face and passed it to the open man, and LeBron gets the blame for this loss.  Not to mention if Haslem sinks the open "J", LBJ would have looked like a genius.  Does the double teamed superstar keep the ball and take an off-balance shot, or pass to the open role-player who is traditionally a good mid-range shooter?

What if D-Wade hadn't disappeared in the 4th quarter.  He was 2-6 shooting, and missed a free-throw that would have given the Heat a three point lead with 13 seconds left.  What if Wade made the free-throw?  LeBron was the only reason the Heat were even in the game in the 4th quarter.  Dwyane Wade should be the one taking the Heat for this loss, if anybody.

This game wasn't a division, or conference game.  Miami still has a 5 1/2 game lead over division rival Orlando, and the Jazz are still looking like a long-shot for a playoff spot out West.  This game has little significance to either team, right now.  If this game were later in the season, and the playoff races were a lot closer than they actually are, this game, and LeBron's pass would have mattered a lot more.  LeBron disappeared in the final minutes of playoff games last year.  He's done much better in the clutch this year, and he certainly stepped it up in the 4th quarter tonight.  He shouldn't be criticized for passing to an open player, especially after all he had done.  If/when he does that in a game that matters this year, than we can get on his back.  As for now, he's still one of the most dominant players in the game.

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